VSiN Analyst Reviews NFL Preseason Betting Patterns Across Three Seasons

Steve Makinen from VSiN examined three years of NFL preseason betting splits data collected from DraftKings covering the 2023 through 2025 seasons and the analysis highlights distinct performance differences between public betting majorities on point spreads and totals. Observers note that the public majorities achieved win rates around 44 to 46 percent against the spread while totals betting produced stronger results reaching 55 to 64 percent in certain subsets and these patterns emerged from both handle percentages and number of bets metrics.

Core Data Patterns in Preseason Wagering

Research from the three-year window shows that when the public heavily favored one side of a point spread the results often fell short yet totals attracted more consistent outcomes in specific scenarios. Data indicates that handle and bet counts served as key indicators for identifying these trends with large public majorities on sides frequently underperforming while totals trends aligned better with actual game results in multiple instances. Those who reviewed the figures found that subsets of totals betting delivered the higher success rates mentioned above and this distinction formed the foundation for the systems Makinen developed.

Development of Twelve Betting Systems

Makinen constructed twelve specific betting systems designed for the 2026 NFL preseason and each system incorporates the observed splits data to guide decisions on sides and totals. The approaches include fading large public majorities on point spreads while tracking and following stronger totals trends based on both handle and number of bets percentages. Experts who examined the methodology observed that the systems rely on historical performance gaps rather than current season predictions and they draw directly from the 2023 to 2025 records to establish rules for when to oppose or align with public action.

One system for example directs bettors to identify spreads where the public majority exceeds a defined threshold on handle and then take the opposite side whereas a totals system monitors subsets where public betting has produced 55 percent or higher success and continues to follow those patterns. Additional systems combine these elements by layering handle data with bet counts to refine entry points during the preseason schedule and the full set of twelve accounts for variations across different game types and betting volumes.

Application to 2026 Preseason Context

As the 2026 NFL preseason approaches in August the systems provide structured guidelines derived from the three prior seasons and they emphasize measurable public betting metrics over subjective assessments. Figures reveal that the poor performance on spreads at 44 to 46 percent against the spread contrasts with totals outcomes and this contrast allows the systems to target specific opportunities where historical data shows divergence. Observers note that the reliance on DraftKings data ensures the systems reflect actual market behavior from a major operator and the focus remains on handle and bet percentages as primary signals.

Those who have studied similar preseason data across other periods recognize that public majorities often shift during exhibition games due to limited team information and Makinen's work quantifies this effect over a consistent three-year sample. The systems therefore incorporate thresholds for both sides and totals to adapt when public action reaches extreme levels and they adjust recommendations based on whether the majority stems from handle concentration or widespread bet numbers.

Key Metrics and Subset Variations

Breakdowns within the analysis separate results by subsets such as games with high versus low total points expectations and these distinctions produced the 55 to 64 percent range for totals in select categories. Handle percentages served as the primary filter for identifying majority positions while number of bets provided a secondary confirmation layer and together the two metrics helped isolate the underperformance on spreads. Researchers who reviewed the full dataset confirmed that the patterns held across multiple weeks of each preseason and this consistency supported the creation of repeatable systems rather than one off adjustments.

Additional detail shows that certain subsets of totals betting aligned with public majorities more effectively than spreads and the systems account for these differences by weighting totals trends higher when specific conditions appear in the data. The overall framework avoids broad generalizations and instead applies targeted rules drawn from the 2023 to 2025 outcomes to structure 2026 preseason decisions around verifiable splits.

Conclusion

The three-year review conducted by VSiN’s Steve Makinen supplies a data-driven basis for twelve betting systems that address both point spreads and totals in the upcoming NFL preseason. Public performance gaps documented at 44 to 46 percent against the spread and up to 55 to 64 percent on totals subsets form the core inputs while handle and bet count percentages guide the application of each rule. As August 2026 approaches these systems offer a method for interpreting public betting action based on historical patterns from DraftKings records. The full analysis appears on the VSiN site and provides further detail on the individual systems derived from the multi-year dataset.